被坑殺的散戶

經濟不可脫離政治獨立分析，純經濟分析得出的結論亦未必會在現實中實踐。近日，林行止先生和謝國忠先生均從政治角度出發分析金融問題，值得細讀﹕

林行止先生在其專欄(7月13日)描述如下﹕
寬鬆量化的貨幣政策不因紙幣泛濫而收斂，反而有深化之勢。資金成本似有若無，受惠的除了負債纍纍的政府，主要還有期巿大炒家，因為沒有手到錢來成本近零的信貸，炒家便無法在巿場大賭(賭字不必加括號)。西方政府營造這種有助期巿瘋狂賭博的環境，其中一項目的，在讓少數國際金融機構可通過在期巿上炒作操控價格獲利以實其資本，助其恢復在金融海嘯中大傷的元氣。

謝國忠先生在其博客(6月17日)描述如下﹕
Over the next five years, governments and central banks will suck investors into subsidising economic growth through volatility. We have seen this in the tech world before. Nasdaq attracts people with its ups and downs. Volatility creates the illusion that one can get lucky and become rich.
Over the past 20 years, hundreds of billions of dollars have been poured into tech space. The money has spawned many technologies to benefit mankind. But investors as a whole have not made money.
The same will happen to the stock market in general. A weak economy needs low-cost capital, preferably negative, to maximise employment. No one will put money into a sure loser. Volatility creates the possibility of winning. Nothing turns Homo sapiens into willing losers like a chance.

觀兩家之言，實有共通之處﹕在非常時期要用非常手段。在實體經濟毫無起色的形勢下，政府惟有在虛擬經濟上動腦筋，默許/甚至暗中相助(例如不理會實際經濟情況去維持低成本炒作資金)大鱷們在賭場上下其手。而這亦註定未來的金融巿場會大起大落。

P.S.: 普多斯特別喜歡「SUCK」一詞，認為描述得十分全神。但應該如何翻譯? 是「坑」乎?!